Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.097790 0.111707 0.126826 0.144458 0.164451 0.186405 0.212336
2026-01-18 0.079091 0.097778 0.119641 0.147076 0.180547 0.220024 0.270093
2026-01-25 0.061270 0.081524 0.106912 0.140995 0.185475 0.241474 0.317256
2026-02-01 0.047188 0.067361 0.094364 0.133016 0.186775 0.258743 0.362242
2026-02-08 0.037648 0.057477 0.085731 0.128711 0.192194 0.282231 0.419307
2026-02-15 0.030130 0.049064 0.077711 0.123893 0.196119 0.304311 0.478124
2026-02-22 0.025801 0.044652 0.074828 0.126199 0.210948 0.344520 0.570082
2026-03-01 0.021028 0.038620 0.068366 0.121753 0.214489 0.367980 0.639886
2026-03-08 0.017433 0.033891 0.063218 0.118571 0.219546 0.394589 0.718996
2026-03-15 0.014559 0.029897 0.058638 0.115559 0.224356 0.421437 0.802652
2026-03-22 0.012924 0.027937 0.057422 0.118498 0.240410 0.470429 0.933296
2026-03-29 0.011176 0.025402 0.054651 0.117945 0.249712 0.508315 1.048936
2026-04-05 0.009786 0.023400 0.052718 0.119012 0.262974 0.556865 1.195104
2026-04-12 0.008693 0.021837 0.051435 0.121263 0.279176 0.613959 1.367971
2026-04-19 0.007255 0.019158 0.047206 0.116277 0.279000 0.637333 1.474421
2026-04-26 0.005967 0.016557 0.042656 0.109699 0.274122 0.649927 1.559756
2026-05-03 0.005064 0.014735 0.039614 0.106158 0.275728 0.677246 1.682822
2026-05-10 0.004285 0.013066 0.036627 0.102183 0.275594 0.700574 1.800502
2026-05-17 0.003876 0.012342 0.035959 0.104116 0.290720 0.762718 2.021761
2026-05-24 0.003308 0.011015 0.033394 0.100439 0.290571 0.787251 2.153470
2026-05-31 0.002861 0.009950 0.031347 0.097808 0.292789 0.818180 2.306637
2026-06-07 0.002483 0.009011 0.029473 0.095315 0.294960 0.849353 2.465512
2026-06-14 0.002290 0.008642 0.029256 0.097761 0.311837 0.922832 2.750911